ABSTRACT

Irwan Hasmin.  The Effects of Increasing Oil Price to the Electrical Energy Supply in South Sulawesi (supervised by Muhammad Arief and Nadjamuddin Harun).

The purpose of this research project is to determine the effects of increasing oil price to the electrical energy supply in the province of South Sulawesi, Indonesia, and their correlation to the projection of the long term energy demand in the region for the period of 2006-2020. 

The initial condition of the system is derived from the results of power flow study using Gauss-Scheidel Method, while the input-output characteristic equation is determined by the Least Square Method of data analysis. The future demand of electrical energy in the region is projected by LEAP Method with on grid supply model based on the technical data provided by the “Current and Committed Future Capacity”. The effects of increasing oil price are observed based on the operation of all thermal power plants in South Sulawesi during the peak load hours (18:00-22:00) on July 11th 2005.

The oil price increase in October 2005 has proven to raise the electrical power generating cost up to Rp. 615.734.466,50 per hour (from Rp ………………… per hour before the oil price increase, up to Rp. ……………………….afterward). The average operational cost is also increasing Rp. 748.88 per kWh from Rp. ……………. to Rp. …………………. per kWh. An extra electrical power capacity of 1355,74 MW should be generated in addition to the existing capacity to meet the projected demand in the period of 2006-2020. This will provide a reserved margin of 30 %. It is recommended also to develop unconventional power plants using renewable energy resources to replace old thermal power plants in order to improve the efficiency and to reduce the energy costs. 

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