ABSTRACT

SRI MAWAR SAID. The 2020 Electrical Energy Demand Projection and the Expansion of Electrical Power Generating Systems in the Province of South Sulawesi (supervised by H. Muh. Arief and Salama Manjang).

The purpose of this research is to estimate the electrical energy demand of the Province of South Sulawesi up to the year of 2020 based on the historical data from 1993 to 2002. Regression is used in the analysis to derive the time-series model and the causal model. The time-series model is derived based on the data of several sectors of customers energy consumption, while the causal model is derived using the historical data of customers population, the province population, gross domestic products (GDP) and the average income per-capita.

The result of the regression test on the two models is the projection of the electrical energy demand from 2003 to 2020. The linear time series model and the causal model have shown that the demand in 2020 is 3,990.37 GWh and 3,998.18 GWh respectively. 

The result of projection using the causal model is then examined by the pessimistic scenario and the optimistic scenario with the assumption that demand has a 10 % level of elasticity over the gross domestic product (GDP).  Then the optimum capacity and categories of power generating systems to meet the Province of South Sulawesi electrical energy demand up to the year of 2020 are determined.

The utilization of the electrical energy in this province is centered in the southern area while the potential of primary energy sources (hydro-power and natural gas) is located in the northern area. Considering the condition of the transmission systems, it is recommended to operate thermal (steam power plants using coal and petroleum gas) generating systems from 2003 to 2013, and then replace them with hydro-power and natural gas from 2012 to 2020, assuming that the transmission network system has been expanded at that time.